2012 Predictions

Once again I am willing to stick my neck out and make predictions for the coming year - 2012.  Looking back at some of my previous forecasts I would give myself a grade of B.  Basically, more right than wrong but that is not saying much but let's give it a try.

1.  It will be Obama/Clinton vs, Romney/Perry.  Romney and Obama need to keep their respective parties core constituencies in line.  Hilary makes sense from several perspectives and gives her a running start for the nomination in 2016.  Perry encourages the anti-Mormon evangelical base in the South to stay with the GOP.  Another choice for VP could be Backmann or Santorum.  I'll stay with Perry.  Either way you have two national security state candidate pairs to maintain the war first, peace second strategy being practiced in Washington.  This could be an extremely close election and I give the edge and prediction to Obama/Clinton.

2.  The economy will stay in a slight decline with many corporate managers waiting to see if there will be any change in Washington.

3.  War with Iran appears to be inevitable for logical reasons that escape me.  There is no demonstrable threat to the United States.  However, Iran is a threat to Israel and has a tremendous amount of oil reserves.  Invading Iraq did not make sense either and they (national security establishment) got away with it.  Why not Iran....especially when an election is at stake?  We should expect an October surprise from Obama to get the election support of the flag wavers and Jewish vote and then some sort of amnesty plan for the Hispanic vote.  The key to Obama reelection is to make everyone forget about the economic issue.

4.  Europe will sink into deeper crisis as the forces of centralization (unification) clash with the decentralization ones.  There will be a EU backlash against to UK for leading the decentralization forces and will find itself isolated with a 'non-aligned' Obama administration.  This could lead to a financial crisis in the UK as its banking industry is threatened. This is probably the last year for the Euro as the rest of the weaker members get flattened by the recession.

5.  There will be increased domestic unrest in China as the effects of the global slowdown hit a highly leveraged economy.  China will propose large scale infrastructure projects in order to keep people working and give the facade of a healthy economy and society. However, this will only be a band aid on a hemorrhage.  China's middle and working classes are well aware of what is going on around the world and there will be more pressure for more openness.  I predict increased violence and crackdown by a desperate regime only too mindful of the results of the Arab Spring.

6.  No secret that Wall Street will be the main issue of the 2012 election.  Obama will make it the centerpiece of his campaign and will paint Romney and the GOP as representing Wall Street, greed and corporate corruption.  We can expect every deal done by Bain Capital to be highlighted as a symbol of offshoring jobs and layoffs.  This will help Obama is the industrial rust belt.

7.  Wall Street will be in decline all year as the economy stagnates and foreign growth slows.

8.  In religion, the Anglican communion will suffer significant defections to make its continued existence appear be in doubt even in the UK. A religious body whose main principle is doctrinal contradiction cannot continue much longer before economic and spiritual collapse are inevitable.

9.  Sarkozy will be defeated in France despite his desperate efforts to keep France as a European and global player.  He will not enjoy Obama's luck this time around and anyone in his position would find it hard to be re-elected.

10.  Celebrity culture will continue unabated and I can guarantee that the Kardashians's and the rest of the Hollywood trash will dominate not only the media but also the fashion industry.

Let's hope I am wrong on most of these predictions.......I would be most happy.